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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $289.88 OCTOBER 2025 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $291.77=

-$1.89/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time April 16 2025 $293.57

OCTOBER 25 Feeder cattle futures $291.77

+$1.80/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Watching LiveAG video sales from the Southern US mainly was impressive. 800 Lbs Steers going for $2400/hd. Those are brahma influenced steers. I tell you they are going to pay for Northern cattle I believe. So at this point it only has a disaster of geo political or supply chain disruption to stop the high price express. I am glad I am not the guy lending money on these my chicken little brain just sees the potential risk.


❌Fewer Cattle - and Heifers - on Feed❌
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegs feedlot inventories on April 1 at 11.638 million head, down 1.6 percent year over year. The twelve-month moving average of feedlot inventories is 11.586 million head, the lowest average level since November 2023. March feedlot marketings were 1.725 million head, up 1.1 percent year over year. Marketings in the first quarter of the year are down 2.2 percent compared to one year ago. Placements in March were up 5.1 percent from one year ago but are down 4.0 percent year over year in the first three months of 2025.

In the current cattle cycle, feedlot inventories peaked in 2022. The April 1 feedlot inventory was down 4.6 percent compared to April 1, 2022. The top six cattle feeding states in April 2022 (Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa, and California) accounted for 85.6 percent of the total feedlot inventory. Those same top six states currently account for 84.1 percent of the total feedlot inventory. Since April 2022, feedlot inventory in Texas has decreased by 9.5 percent; Nebraska, down 2.3 percent; Kansas, down 6.8 percent; Colorado, down 9.1 percent; and California, down 11.5 percent. Among the top six states, only Iowa currently has a larger feedlot inventory, up 4.6 percent since April 2022.

The April report also contained the quarterly inventory of steers and heifers on feed. Heifers on feed was 4.38 million head, down 3.9 percent from a year ago and down 4.3 percent from January. Heifers on feed are currently at 4.38 million head, 37.6 percent of the total on-feed inventory, the lowest quarterly total since July of 2021 and the lowest percentage since April 2020. The heifer percentage has averaged over 39 percent for the past 16 quarters. This may be the first solid evidence that some heifer retention is beginning. It is not definitive nor very strong yet – the current heifer on-feed percentage is still fractionally above the long-term average percentage (the red line in Figure 1). During herd expansion the heifer percentage is expected to drop below 35 percent for several quarters. The next quarterly update in July may confirm the declining heifer on-feed percentage and heifer retention if the percentage drops below 37 percent.

A graph with blue lines and red lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, discusses how tariffs are creating uncertainty but the fundamentals of the cattle markets remain the same. on SunUpTV from April 22, 2025 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8F6jGRso68


Practical Impact
Expanded limits, like the $12.25/cwt currently in effect for Feeder Cattle as of April 7, 2025 (per posts on X), indicate recent limit events—likely a sharp drop, given market sentiment on that date. This wider range gives traders more flexibility but also increases potential gains or losses, amplifying risk for hedgers and speculators alike.

In summary, expanded limits in CME Feeder Cattle futures are a mechanism to manage extreme volatility, triggered by a limit settlement, raising the daily price range from $8.25/cwt to $12.25/cwt until the market stabilizes. This system supports the futures market’s role in price discovery and risk management for the cattle industry.

🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Chris Winward
​4/25/2025

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Cattle

This week's price action left the cattle bulls sailing into the weekend with plenty of reasons to celebrate holding out for higher prices in the cash and futures markets. The early 216 cash trade in Nebraska set the stage for asking prices $3-4 higher than last week. Markets were relatively quiet over the second half of the week as traders awaited the cash trade to develop. After today's close, $215 was passed in central Nebraska. April and June fats made new contract highs while the back months failed to take out the contract highs made in March. Open interest has been fluctuating and the intraday chop is a result of indecision- traders' use stops that are tighter than normal, people don't want to hold positions overnight, etc... The fundamentals are strong and boxes are holding above the $330 level, despite the broader economic concerns and trade war headlines. US Beef demand is healthy at the moment and consumers' willingness to pay up for beef over cheaper proteins has been seemingly unphased by less spending power. With all that positive news, I believe we could be nearing an inflection point on the demand front which could start to work its way into the scenario. Recent data shows that consumers are less optimistic about the current state of the US economy. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey was 10% lower month-over-month in April and almost 35% lower than it was last year. As in 2009, frozen pizzas are seeing a spike in sales as well, indicating that people are staying home instead of dining out. All that being said, It's hard to make a bearish argument when cattle futures are making new contract highs. This begs the question- How or when do you hedge in this environment? I get this question a lot and my response is often this: You do not have to pick a top when making marketing decisions. It's impossible and nobody is a good enough trader to pick the exact moment where a long-term bull market reverses. I like long put options for smaller producers because gives you some flexibility vs just selling the futures and living with that decision. Options strategies are many and each vary in complexity and risk factors, so please make the effort to understand these factors before placing trades. Your broker should help with this. I don't recommend waiting until the board reverses because that initial move down is often swift and it is hard to get anything done in the options markets as volatility premiums swell. Recall the selloff in early April that dropped the August feeder futures $22 in 4 sessions. That contract has since regained all of those losses but it took 3 weeks to do so- stairs up, elevator down. Last week's Commitment of Traders' report showed a decrease in managed money positioning in the cattle complex, both long and short. This week's report showed them adding more long than short positions. The current MM long position in feeders represents 46.6% of total open interest. In fats their long position is 37.6% of total open interest. Keep in mind that this data is of last Tuesday.