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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $370.90 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $356.17=

+$14.73/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time April 15 2026 $379.09

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $356.17

+$22.92/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

We had a bit of closing on the Basis today. We just seem to be on the cusp of volatility.

I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

​“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
5/15/2026

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, a great deal of price expanse and volatility took place this week in futures. Literally the same as last week. Most contract months closed a little lower than last week, but for the most part, the week was filled with $5.00 to $9.00 ranges within the day. Sometimes more than once. I didn't see much that changed this week. Cattle feeders continue to show a little reserve in bidding higher for incoming inventory, as reflected by the CME index. Boxes are no better and cash dollars higher. Packer margins could reach $400.00 negative. This week will be interesting to see if cattle feeders are able to see black ink. I think they should, as some cattle slaughtered now are ones placed when prices were lower in November, and the increase in this week's price. Of the most interest is that futures continue to hold a hefty discount, leaving dollars of basis risks for producers to contend with. This diverging factor between producers and futures traders is very, very interesting. Either traders have to go bid to converge basis, or packers reduce processing in an attempt to back cattle up. Either would produce a hefty move in price. Backgrounders continued to widen starting spreads between whatever lighter weight they buy and the feeder cattle market. Drought has been a topic this week. While some rain is forecast, heat is building coming into next week and it may be that weather foils the best laid plans with hay and pasture conditions weak. All of the above leads me to anticipate even wider daily price ranges and continual volatility. Note the CME raised the daily trading limits to $8.50 Live Cattle and $10.75 Feeder Cattle effective June 1. I would anticipate the market to be anxious to test these limits sooner than later.



Thursday and Friday's lower grain and oilseed trading is believed a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of trading. Great expectations for renewed Chinese buying seemingly fell flat. Wheat continues to be on the forefront a bull market. A limit higher move this week, and poor crop ratings, reflects how bad of shape the crop is. With the gap higher filled from the Monday to Tuesday trading, and a hefty correction, I anticipate wheat to resume its uptrend with targets for December KC to the mid $8.00 range. With both corn and beans a component of energy, I anticipate both to trade higher.



At times, economies can inflate themselves out of debt, and I believe the President, and market participants, are in favor of such. Equity indices, grains, and oilseeds were pumped higher in expectation of great results from China. The Chinese visit apparently wasn't as good as expected, leading to grains, oilseeds, and bonds plummeting. I have been stating all week that it was amazing bonds didn't move lower with such stark evidence of inflation from this week's CPI and PPI reports. With a little help from Japan, dumping billions of dollars of US bonds on the market, bonds were down nearly 2 big points on Friday. Energy continues to move higher with a belief the upward trend is still intact. I anticipate energy to continue higher. Outside of the cattle, input costs remain elevated. Caution is highly recommended with current basis spreads so wide, and seemingly no curtailment of production or processing capacity.
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“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠
U.S. Beef Packing Industry Structure
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

In 2025, total cattle slaughter was 29.252 million head, down 6.4 percent year over year and down 13.1 percent from the recent cyclical peak in 2022. Cattle slaughter in 2025 was at the lowest level since 2015. Table 1 shows the breakdown of 2025 cattle slaughter by size categories of beef packing plants. This includes both fed and cow slaughter plants. Out of a total of 937 federally inspected packing plants, 94.8 percent (888 plants with capacity up to 100,000 head per year) accounted for 1.92 million head, 7.14 percent of total slaughter. By contrast, a total of eleven plants, with capacity in excess of one million head per year, accounted for 13.834 million head, or 47.3 percent of total cattle slaughter. On average, fed slaughter is about 80 percent of total cattle slaughter. These eleven plants accounted for 58.1 percent of fed slaughter (Figure 3). Fed slaughter is currently 81.4 percent of total cattle slaughter, the highest percentage since 2007. Low cow slaughter since 2022 has increased the fed slaughter percentage.



Source: Livestock Slaughter Summary, USDA-NASS, 2001 and 2026

The general structure of the beef packing industry has been in place for nearly 35 years. Figure 1 shows the four-firm concentration ratio for beef packing as calculated by the Packers and Stockyards Division of USDA. Beef packing in the U.S. consolidated rapidly in the 1980s and early 1990s. By 1993, the industry achieved a high level of concentration that has remained mostly constant since. The annual Livestock Slaughter summary first reported plants with a capacity of one million head or more in 1991. The number of large plants has varied between sixteen plants in 2000 to the current eleven plants in 2025. The closure of the Lexington, Nebraska plant this year will drop the number of one million+ head plants to ten.

Table 1 shows that the basic size structure in 2025 is not appreciably different than in 2000, the only year with 16 large plants. Fed slaughter was at a record level of 29.6 million head in 2000 and has dropped to 23.8 million head in 2025, a decrease of 19.5 percent. However, Figure 2 shows that large plants have been accounting for a declining percentage of fed slaughter since 2019, with the current percentage the smallest since 1994.
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Source: Packers and Stockyards Division, USDA

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Between 1991 and 2007, the total number of federally inspected beef packing plants decreased from 1,031 plants to 626 plants. Recent interest in small packing plants has resulted in the total number increasing since 2021 to 937 plants in 2025. Plants with less than 100,000 head capacity accounted for 3.9 percent of cattle slaughter in 2007 and has increased to 7.1 percent in 2025.

Derrell Peel breaks down how global beef markets are shifting and what that means for U.S. cattle producers today on the Cattle USA Daily Podcast from May 4, 2026 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAID-B36kQI