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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $288.78 OCTOBER 2025 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $288.32=

+$.46/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time April 16 2025 $293.57

OCTOBER 25 Feeder cattle futures $288.32

+$5.25/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

We are marching on, and we can see record prices. Think in your lifetime how often you have seen a peak in a market last. In my life this is one of the longest sustained ones I have seen. I full disclosure I thought this thing has peaked out several times. Today on the radio I heard a guy say something interesting. You know the deportation we are seeing of undocumented criminals has been interesting to say the least. The point the gentleman made was, what will it look like when the government goes after the employers of undocumented workers. I have been in the big kill plants. I asked the question how do you make sure your employees are documented. The manger of the plant told me they have to accept the employees papers that are presented. So if you have a G-man come into the business and verify authenticity of documents, and they are not straight? Look out we could see some real messes show up. That may be the solution to over production problem we may be facing. I am in no way trying to be political, I am merely pointing out a market disrupter.


❌Fewer Cattle - and Heifers - on Feed❌
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegs feedlot inventories on April 1 at 11.638 million head, down 1.6 percent year over year. The twelve-month moving average of feedlot inventories is 11.586 million head, the lowest average level since November 2023. March feedlot marketings were 1.725 million head, up 1.1 percent year over year. Marketings in the first quarter of the year are down 2.2 percent compared to one year ago. Placements in March were up 5.1 percent from one year ago but are down 4.0 percent year over year in the first three months of 2025.

In the current cattle cycle, feedlot inventories peaked in 2022. The April 1 feedlot inventory was down 4.6 percent compared to April 1, 2022. The top six cattle feeding states in April 2022 (Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa, and California) accounted for 85.6 percent of the total feedlot inventory. Those same top six states currently account for 84.1 percent of the total feedlot inventory. Since April 2022, feedlot inventory in Texas has decreased by 9.5 percent; Nebraska, down 2.3 percent; Kansas, down 6.8 percent; Colorado, down 9.1 percent; and California, down 11.5 percent. Among the top six states, only Iowa currently has a larger feedlot inventory, up 4.6 percent since April 2022.

The April report also contained the quarterly inventory of steers and heifers on feed. Heifers on feed was 4.38 million head, down 3.9 percent from a year ago and down 4.3 percent from January. Heifers on feed are currently at 4.38 million head, 37.6 percent of the total on-feed inventory, the lowest quarterly total since July of 2021 and the lowest percentage since April 2020. The heifer percentage has averaged over 39 percent for the past 16 quarters. This may be the first solid evidence that some heifer retention is beginning. It is not definitive nor very strong yet – the current heifer on-feed percentage is still fractionally above the long-term average percentage (the red line in Figure 1). During herd expansion the heifer percentage is expected to drop below 35 percent for several quarters. The next quarterly update in July may confirm the declining heifer on-feed percentage and heifer retention if the percentage drops below 37 percent.

A graph with blue lines and red lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, discusses how tariffs are creating uncertainty but the fundamentals of the cattle markets remain the same. on SunUpTV from April 22, 2025 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8F6jGRso68


Practical Impact
Expanded limits, like the $12.25/cwt currently in effect for Feeder Cattle as of April 7, 2025 (per posts on X), indicate recent limit events—likely a sharp drop, given market sentiment on that date. This wider range gives traders more flexibility but also increases potential gains or losses, amplifying risk for hedgers and speculators alike.

In summary, expanded limits in CME Feeder Cattle futures are a mechanism to manage extreme volatility, triggered by a limit settlement, raising the daily price range from $8.25/cwt to $12.25/cwt until the market stabilizes. This system supports the futures market’s role in price discovery and risk management for the cattle industry.

🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher B. Swift
​4/22/2025

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Live Cattle:

Most anything stated today will simply be beating the same dead horse. Cattleman are weeding out the weak with prices tempting some to exit the business while on top. Margins are tight in every sector with suspect that today's fat cattle profits are merely being invested 100% into newly acquired inventory. Futures traders appear to have no desire to bid futures to levels of cash until much closer to expiration. I have no idea what will be the catalyst for the next most probable move, or in which direction. What I do know is that every sector is having to manipulate production in some manner, with expectations that not everyone can manage the amount of working capital it takes to produce a pound of beef.



Feeder Cattle:

No difference here. With a perception that there is significantly more backgrounding facilities than feed yards, and fewer cattle for a sector in which volume has always been available, there is woefully too much production capacity for the number of animals. The conclusion is that not everyone will be able to manage historical capital outlay on reduced volume of production. With no signs or signals of expansion, it could be 2 years or more before any noticeable increase of inventory is seen. I recommend you attempt to figure out how you will manage to compete with fewer animals, higher priced ones, and the risk of adverse price fluctuation, as there doesn't seem to be any middle ground.