Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $343.73 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $326.40=

+$17.33/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time October 16 2025 $376.51

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $326.40

+$50.11/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Cash finishes the week strong. Futures though fairly reluctant to respond.

At a press conference on August 12th, 1986, US President Ronald Reagan said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”


I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
​12/05/2025

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, optimism has roared back in rare fashion. Unfortunately, only cattlemen seem to share this optimism. Packers, grocers, restaurants, and consumers are not necessarily on the same page as cattle producers in that they have been the ones experiencing detriment by the higher cattle prices. In my attempt to decipher the next most probable move, I asked myself, if a bull market climbs a wall of worry, what does a bear market do? It slides down a slope of hope. The significant increase of optimism, in the face of immense projected negative returns, suggests producers are in great hope of prices returning to the previous, if not higher prices than in this year. There is no doubt in my mind that prices could do this. However, the fundamentals of "there just aren't any more cattle" may not hold as much weight as it did in '25. That is because there is too much production and processing capacity for the number of animals available. Processing capacity has already begun to shrink towards the end of this year. I anticipate some smaller ones to be having trouble as well. If the border remains closed, then I would expect production to begin shrinking. If the border is reopened, then more cattle will be available and the only reason prices are so high now is that there are fewer cattle. So, whether anticipated or not, the reopening of the border would bring in more inventory and that would be anticipated to make cattle prices weaker. Towards the end of the week, I read a story about Wendy's and the troubles they have endured, as well as foresee. McDonalds, Kroger's, and others have mentioned through the year the shifting of consumer demand and changes in willingness to pay. So, with great optimism for cattlemen, but not so much for beef, I anticipate a decline in cattle prices on a slope of hope.



I am an avid follower of the Elliott Wave and believe it has some forecasting abilities. My interpretation of a wave pattern on feeder cattle suggests that the first move down is from contract high to the 11/6 low per respective contract month. For example, I will use the January contract. The close only chart takes out the noise of the day's trading ranges and only subjects one to the close of the day. I can count 5 waves down that terminates on 11/6. This count is now labeled major wave A. From there, the market rallied, and then sold off again in what is believed an irregular major wave B. What makes this irregular is the exceeding of the low of the initial move down of major wave A. The irregular major wave pattern of the B, is believed to have set up the current C wave rally of the major B. The C wave rally of the major B wave should unfold into 5 lesser waves and at Friday's high, I believe we are within spitting distance of. If correct, the fundamentals and technical chart pattern leads me to anticipate a major C wave decline to a new low under the 11/6 per respective contract month. If wrong, prices will move higher and how you manage the inherent risk of livestock production determines the outcome. This last sentence made me think hard about producers and how they may want to manage risk after this year's price movements. That could become a major issue if producers forego risk protection, exposing themselves to even more risk. I believe that if you factor in this variable, with the others of the equation, it could make for a slippery slope. Charts are available on the Shootin' the Bull site.



The President has had some good success in accomplishing goals he has set. However, a thorn in his side may be China. Soybeans rallied just over a dollar on expectations of large Chinese demand. As this has faded, and been moved down the road, I anticipate all of the gains, and maybe a few more cents, to be wiped out in beans. Corn is not expected to fair very well either. Basis is terrible and the cost of carry barely covering half of storage costs. Throw on top that, US corn and soybeans are sharply higher than in the rest of the world, and it leads me to anticipate a sharp decline in corn and soybean prices. Were corn to soften further, it would be expected for cattlemen to try to further grow their way out of projected losses. Energy has been the most perplexing of markets to figure out, and since the market itself has not figured it out, I don't fault myself too much. Crude oil has stagnated into a well-defined trading range. Diesel fuel continues to be exceptionally volatile with wide price expanse. The spreads between crude and the products lead me to believe this is a refining issue and not shortages of oil. Hence, were any peace agreements made between Russia and Ukraine, I would anticipate oil prices to plummet. As they continue, then spikes in diesel fuel will be anticipated. Bonds sold off and began making new lows from contract high. Japan is a huge drag on US bonds as they are the largest holder of US debt outside the US. The US remains in a very inflationary pattern with further evidence of a two-tier economy unfolding and the lower tier not doing so well.

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Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "Mid-Day Cattle Comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.swifttradingco.com



This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Back to the Fundamentals…Hopefully
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist


After a tremendous string of record cattle prices in the first three quarters of the year, the market was ripe for a significant correction. For the past six weeks cattle futures and cash markets have been dominated by a near continuous stream of political rhetoric, speculation, and fears mixed with a small amount of reality. Hopefully, the federal government is distracted now by other things and will spend less time meddling in cattle and beef markets.

The political uncertainty provided outside money in cattle futures, with big long positions, an opportunity to take some profits, and aided by computer algorithms, have no doubt pulled Live and Feeder futures too low (and taken cash markets with them). Much of the outside money will likely reset positions going forward. After all, futures markets left several chart gaps in this correction that look to be filled going back up.

Maybe cattle markets can get back to the fundamentals, which have not changed through all of this. With some government data flowing again, the fundamental picture has clearly not changed from the trajectory heading into the shutdown. The October and November Cattle on Feed reports show continued slow erosion of feedlot inventories with placements and marketings showing a more dramatic picture of tight cattle supplies. October placements were the lowest in the data series back to 1996 and the 12-month moving average of placements shows that average feedlot placements the past year have been the lowest since July 2016, a bit over nine years ago. October feedlot marketings were the lowest for the month since 2015, with average marketings for the past twelve months the lowest since October 2016. November 1 feedlot totals were down 2.2 percent year over year and average inventories the past year are the lowest since November 2018 after twelve consecutive months of declining feedlot inventories. Feedlot inventories are expected to continue decreasing with smaller feeder cattle supplies, no Mexican feeder imports and heifer retention still ahead. The October heifer on feed inventory was 38.1 percent, unchanged from the July level.

So far this year, fed steer and heifer slaughter is down 5.2 percent but since June has been down 7.6 percent from one year ago. Steer and heifer carcass weights are higher again this year but not enough to offset declining slaughter. Fed beef production is down 2.7 percent so far this year and combined with an 8.2 percent year over year decrease in nonfed beef production leads to a decrease in total beef production of 3.6 percent year over year. In the past 24 weeks, beef production has been down 5.8 percent.

Cattle markets are expected to recover from the correction but the timing is unclear. With the year winding down and holidays approaching, cash and futures may mostly coast out the remainder of the year and reset in January. However, if the politicians will be quiet, significant recovery might happen in the next couple of weeks before December finally wraps up. Volatility is still a major factor in cattle markets.