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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $365.77 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $342.10=

+$23.67/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time February 19 2026 $377.37

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $342.10

+$35.27/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

We are living through the biggest gamble in our lifetime with the amount of wars and posturing in the World. So with a gamble comes High Risk or High Reward. I tend to see us being a bit more cautious especially with the JBS Strike looming. It may end up looking like the Holcum Plant fire a knee jerk reaction to a local issue. The concern for drought across cattle country is something we are all nervous about. With an commodity like cattle that is under supply pressure and you take the feedstuffs like grass and reduce it? I think is is all speculation as it truly always is. If you can lock in and not lose during this year it is my suggestion you think about it. Next big question is what sale do you put your cattle on Early vs Late????

I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
3/10/2026

Live Cattle:

Due to the manipulation of slaughter, beef prices have rallied and cattle prices softened. This shift in production is brining profitability back to packers. Cattle feeders need packers to pay more, as we saw last week the extent of losses from cattle having been placed in October '25. The significant price swings are anticipated to continue as cattlemen need other cattlemen to pay more, but that doesn't appear to reverberate through to the grocer, restaurant and consumer. As these factors have nothing to do with the impacts consumers are feeling and going to feel further of the increase cost of energy. I anticipate energy to trade higher, but may not exceed current contract highs, barring the current one sided event to become two sided.



Feeder Cattle:

As the index slowly melts, the basis was maybe just a little too wide, and traders simply narrowed the spread. I continue to anticipate a triangular price formation with the current portion down, following the Moore Research seasonality that showed fats and feeders topping in mid-February, and declining into the first of May.



I recommend using the narrowing of the basis, by futures, to continue to market inventory into the future. If correct on the triangulation, the February high is expected to be the highs for the remainder of the year. Current headline news is what is moving the markets at an exceptional rate of discovery. Not much more bad has to happen to send prices sharply lower, but I can't find as much good that would send prices sharply higher. I anticipate a return towards the November '25 lows, but don't expect them to be exceeded. If all follows suit, then the May through July rally may not exceed the February high and the August to November decline near a pencil point to the triangle. What moves prices out of the triangle? Most likely by how much expansion has taken place and is in the pipeline. ​
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“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Seasonal Beef Demand
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Wholesale beef prices have moved higher thus far in 2026, reflecting both strong beef demand and typical seasonal patterns. Choice boxed beef prices averaged $386.41/cwt. the first week of March, up 9.1 percent from the beginning of the year, and up 23.0 percent year over year.

Boxed beef prices normally increase through the first half of the year, peaking in June before declining to the end of the year (Figure 1). Boxed beef prices usually begin to increase more sharply in April as retailers build inventories for the coming summer demand that begins in late May. The average seasonal price index indicates that boxed beef prices typically increase by over eleven percent in the first half of the year. This year, boxed beef prices have already increased over nine percent, earlier than usual. It is not clear if boxed beef prices will increase more than seasonally this year or simply move to seasonal peaks sooner than usual. Both are possible.

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The boxed beef seasonal price pattern in Figure 1 is the net effect of many beef products included in the composite boxed beef measure. Across many beef products from the various carcass primals, different beef products have varied and unique seasonal price patterns reflecting different seasonal demands. While many beef product prices are increasing in the first half of the year, some products have lower prices early in the year and higher prices later in the year.

Figure 2 shows the seasonal price pattern for three middle meat cuts. High-valued middle meats drive much of the seasonal increase in cutout values. Strip loins lead the seasonal increase with the most variable seasonal pattern of any wholesale beef product, increasing an average of thirty percent from January to May. Strips are a popular summer grilling item as well as for restaurant menus. Ribeye prices also increase modestly in the first half of the year due to seasonal retail along with food service demand. Tenderloins are more popular for food service menus and the seasonal bump in the second quarter may be largely due to Mother’s Day demand. Prices of these steak items drop in the heat of summer with Ribeye and Tenderloin demand rebounding to seasonal peaks in the fourth quarter due to restaurant and holiday demand.

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Figure 3 shows the seasonal price patterns for some end cuts and briskets. Brisket prices typically increase and peak in the second quarter with stronger summer demand. Round values have been very strong the last two years as a result of declining nonfed beef production and demand for additional lean. Round prices are typically strong from the second quarter through the third quarter as a result of seasonal ground beef demand. Prices for chuck rolls usually decrease into warmer weather. Chuck products have higher demand for roasts and crock pot cooking in cooler weather with prices reaching a seasonal peak in the fall. Chucks are also popular export items.


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All wholesale beef cuts are higher year over year with most following seasonal patterns thus far in the year. The boxed beef cutout has increased faster than seasonally normal and suggests that beef demand remains strong in the face of tightening beef supplies.