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Howdy,

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $242.11 NOV 2024 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $258.87=

-$16.76/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time Oct 2023 $254.10

November 24 Feeder cattle futures $258.87

-$4.77/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

I feel comfortable putting on LRP's now. I would very much say from now on start doing some. Especially if you have near by stuff. This is predicted to be volatile. Keep your eye on Fat Cattle because that is a strong indictor of how much they will pay for your calves. I truly believe if you keep in mind weather it is light weight cattle or heavy cattle the per head number is going to shake out at $1900.00 per head. I know you have watched cents per pound but look at the whole number and see what you think. Do get blind sided by turn around Tuesday it can sting both ways.


SO WHAT SHOULD YOU DO? Will this really impact the Cow Calf Feeder market? I think we need to have some covered. Going back to my 25% of your total sales. This leaves you cattle to cover when we have potential highs coming. It is believed the trade early next week will run with this seemingly higher than expected number. This should send things trending down. The cow herd is most defiantly shrinking. The cattle that are being fed on the other hand is growing lager in carcass weights size and supplemented from new imported and domestic sources like Beef/Dairy crosses. I feel for all of you as this has my head spinning on why this is playing out this way. If you want to get some on, I have to have you locked in by 7:00 AM in morning, it would be way better the night before.


🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift
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4/22/2024

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Live Cattle:
Short futures traders are believed to have been the biggest buyers today. How open interest ends up on today's trade may help to decipher how interested traders are. Seemingly, most forgot there was a week in March for which very little interstate commerce took place, therefore leaving a void in a weeks placement. The January snow storm presented a like situation for which the month of February took care of by increasing the placement above expectations. So, while I don't think April is going to increase by much, I think you will see the placements for April higher than some may guess. Of some interest would be that there are few questioning the placement number in a manner that suggests, "why would they place more". I am already seeing signs of slowing purchases that were trying to get in front of the curve. Importers are believed filling needs and with more fed cattle on feed than last year, and whole lot more than many ever thought possible, there is no shortage of beef at the moment. Yes, I heard you say, but what about the future? Again, my belief is that alternative sources of beef through the dairy/beef cross, increased imports, decreased exports and maintaining a high price to the consumer in an attempt to slow consumption, will keep beef prices, and therefore cattle prices, from moving to new highs. Maybe they do. I have done this for long enough to never say never. I expect prices to continue to gyrate within the boundaries being created in the form of a triangle. This should provide opportunity again for cattle feeders to use any widening of a negative basis to help lock in prices that may or may not be traded in the cash markets.

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Feeder Cattle:

Cattle feeders may have attempted to jump into the fire on the opening. Open interest trade today will help to tell the tale. Not much helped them though as feeder cattle were up more than fats and feed costs perked up a little today as well. So, while no big changes yet, we'll have to see how cattle feeders feel about paying more money after prices have stabilized somewhat over the past couple of weeks. Backgrounders will most likely be under the gun for several weeks as they will be bullish, the market may not be, and lenders will be pushing to hedge most any negative basis created. Most contract months are hitting the 34 day moving average. This price remains several dollars from the top trendline. The gap created today will have some questioning as to whether or when it will be filled. I think it will take a day or two to see who is really willing to keep paying higher and who is not. This report changed little of the aspects already known, with some inclinations of higher placement in April than first thought as some cattle are expected to bleed in from the March time frame. Other than this, retail beef remains sky high, restaurants continue to increase menu prices and consumers appear to be spending money they don't have.

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I encourage you to read Chris Swift’s article today! He always has interesting things to say they are found under Mid day and “Shootin the Bull"