Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $376.51 OCTOBER 2025 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $371.95=

+$4.56/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time October 16 2025 $376.51

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $359.72

+$16.79/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Momma said there would be days like this. Remember Trump said Beef prices need to come down. He did not say cattle prices are going to come down. We sell cattle not beef for the most part. This is like the school of fish all moving in one direction. So I keep the rule of thumb when everyone runs to one side of the boat it will flip. We have been trying to point out this may happen. For those of you who locked in this week its a sigh of relief. For those of you wishing remember Hope is not a Strategy! We will be able to jump back in because no plan has actually been laid out. Monday I expect everyone to realize we still don't have any cattle.

At a press conference on August 12th, 1986, US President Ronald Reagan said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”


I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
​10/17/2025

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, Wow! What a week to be in the cattle industry. Good, bad, or ugly, this will be a commodity run for the history books when it comes to a US produced agricultural product. Cattle feeders out did themselves all week long fighting over pen space as spreads between starting feeder and finished fat widened to widths for which the deepest pockets are maybe finding a bottom to. Most of my comments this week were simply stating I had no idea of what one would go to, with the answer having been, whatever it took. I mentioned that barring a reopening of the border or improvement in Brazil tariffs, this fire would have to burn itself out, as no suppressant used had much impact. The unfortunate of that statement is it suggests a contraction of production and processing capacity. As well, I've mentioned the volatility of the President and how his actions can and have impacted other markets. Well, Thursday afternoon, the black swan, everyone knew was there, swooped of its perch and right into the thick of the matter. What I don't know as I write this is "what"? What is the black swan? Reduction of tariffs? Opening of the southern border? Deals with Australia and or New Zealand? All of the above?



As well as having stated the above, I made as solid of an argument as I could to maintain hedges, roll up anything that can be, and add to whatever new inventory you have recently acquired. For the time being, or until a new contract high is made, this week's high is believed the top of the bull market, and the final 5th wave magnitude of a major cycle, with all culminating in a blow off top for which producers inhaled negative margins like another cow was never to be born again. Whether the President's impact will be the suppressant that extinguishes the bull market, or just stirs the fire for a few weeks, it appears that the issue of cattle and beef supplies, causing significant price increases to consumers, has caught the attention of the President of the United States of America and he, like eggs, and so far most everything else stated he would accomplish, is doing something about the price of beef, and therefore cattle. His track record so far suggests to not bet against him.



Grains are having a difficult time going lower. With the most expensive inventory on feed in history, fixing some variable costs may not be a bad idea. Energy is believed in a bear market now with lower prices expected. I anticipate more recessionary factors to materialize going forward than inflationary, but maybe the lingering stagflation is what keeps the US moving towards recession. Remember "transitory" inflation? Bonds are moving higher, even though begrudgingly. Equities continue to amaze as a leak develops and bulls are quick to repair and reinflate as quickly as possible. To watch the machines trade in that market is quite a sight to behold. I hear more often of the two-tiered economy and how much the upper tier's spending is offsetting the middle and lower portions of the second tier not spending. I hear more often that a great deal of the money sloshing around is tethered to multiple derivatives for which that nasty aspect of unintended consequences comes to mind very quickly. I hear more often of the bubble AI is creating. The energy use of is phenomenal, along with the data banks to support the infrastructure and mining of bitcoins on a computer like playing Mario Brothers video game and collecting tokens for which somehow a value was placed on them. I never will forget that in the movie about Bernie Madoff, they were sitting in his office laughing at all the people screaming about losing money as the stock market plummeted and the hosts on the financial channels wondering how Bernie will do, when all the while, not one cent was ever invested in the stock market. It was pure Ponzi from the start. Nonetheless, lastly, watch the movie, "The Big Short" I've referenced it a couple of times this week as to the text book example of how a market can remain irrational for longer than one can remain solvent. I feel the cattle market is in a nearly identical situation.


Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "Mid-Day Cattle Comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.swifttradingco.com



This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Fall Beef Demand
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist
Boxed beef cutout values peaked at Labor Day and fell through September. On a daily basis, the Choice boxed beef cutout peaked on September 3 at $416.01/cwt. and bottomed one month later on October 3 at $362.27/cwt. before stabilizing. Fall is when beef demand transitions from a grilling focus to cool-weather crock pot cooking and back-to-school restaurant traffic.
Figure 1 shows weekly prices for popular steak products. Beef tenderloin, after being relatively weak in 2024 and early 2025, has increased sharply in the third quarter (Figure 1 A). Tenderloins are typically strong in the fall and winter as restaurant traffic increases, with a bump in May for Mother’s Day. Panel B in Figure 1 shows wholesale ribeye, strong going into summer and again in the fall in anticipation of restaurant holiday Prime Rib demand. Strip loins were very strong in the first half of the year, then dropped sharply mid-summer before stabilizing the last few weeks (Figure 1 C). Top sirloin, popular for summer grilling, peaked mid-summer and has declined seasonally through the third quarter of the year (Figure 1 D). All of these wholesale values are well above year-ago levels.
Figure 1.
A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Figure 2 shows current strength in Chuck arm roast (Figure 2 A) and eye of round prices (Figure 2 B). Chuck and round products have more diverse demands compared to steak items. Though not as popular during summer grilling, chuck and round products may be demanded for value retail cuts, at-home slow-cooking, exports, or for grinding. Very strong prices for lean trimmings this year have pulled more round products into ground beef markets this year (Figure 2 D). Summer ground beef demand has likely peaked seasonally but tight lean supplies will keep ground beef prices elevated. Brisket values have decreased from an early fall peak but remain popular year-around (Figure 2 C).
Figure 2. A graph of different colored lines

AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Fall and winter weather and the upcoming holiday season change the relative demands for various beef products, but overall beef demand continues strong. Wholesale and retail beef prices will be supported by strong demand and continued decreases in beef production.
Derrell Peel, OSU Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, shares key insights from his presentation at the 2025 Rural Economic Outlook Conference, focusing on current livestock market trends and challenges on SunUpTV from October 11, 2025 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtBvirELhns.