Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $374.47 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $351.90=

+$22.57/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time October 16 2025 $376.51

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $351.90

+$24.61/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Some Profit taking today. We will see this swing more and more. Live cattle seem to lead the move down.

At a press conference on August 12th, 1986, US President Ronald Reagan said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”


I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
2/06/2026

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, there are no words for the price action this week. I can't explain it, nor has anyone been able to explain it to me. The dramatic shifts in basis, cash trading, and futures trading have disrupted some of the best laid plans out there. Although I fully understand the lower slaughter numbers, the bidding higher for lesser inventory simply points to still way too much processing capacity than cattle. I continue to believe the increase of smaller processors, mostly that support farmer/feeder and some commercial processing, is a burr under the saddle of the majors. The Biden era threw billions of dollars into increasing livestock processing. As the cattle numbers dwindled, those smaller plants were able to compete at a level that hampers the majors. With the market as fragile as it is, recognized by the near limit sell off when the announcement of JBS on strike was made, were a second shoe to drop in processing, would be anticipated to back cattle up to a point in which the cattle feeder may have to capitulate. I wrote this week of the polar opposite position the packer and the cattle feeder are in. The packer, bleeding profusely, and the cattle feeder, seemingly dangling a proverbial knife over their heads, leads me to believe the processing side will do more to control what they can. What that may be seems the question. Hearing multiple comments this week on supply issue, and how the supply issue won't change by much in the coming months, seemingly emboldened cattlemen further to resist marketing and decrease the use of risk management, in any form. Knowing that supply has an equal partner, demand, I try much harder to balance the two than all one sided. I believe there are fewer cattle, but I don't believe beef demand is still good. Lower box prices, and fewer boxes moved, suggests consumer demand is not nearly as strong. So, the willingness to pay may still remain, but they are not consuming nearly as much at the elevated price levels. Packers are anticipated to take further action to stem the losses.



Soybeans benefited greatly from the "Trump bump" this week when a mere mention of a good talk with Xi with soybeans mentioned. Corn has not received any benefit from anything and may be due for something. I would say that nothing would please the President more than to see grain prices higher and not have to subsidize the farmer. On the flip side, the cattle industry will be holding their breath as to when or if the President wants to comment on beef. There is no doubt the administration is favorable towards beef, but maybe not its price. Hence, Kennedy was adamant about rebuilding the herd when speaking at the NCBA convention this week. Energy prices continued to move higher as well this week and bonds even perked up as employment seems to be slipping. There was no employment report today and has been postponed until Wednesday of next week. With the ADP report earlier this week, not meeting the expectation, and a downward revision for December, I don't think it was going to be good. With the bond market having moved higher, inflation is anticipated to increase. That is what the President wants as anything that may curtail inflation seems to make equities move lower. Energy prices were higher on the week with tremendous volatility in all of them. This week has been phenomenal trading of everything and I have to believe there have been consequences of these actions that have not been exposed yet. I am overly cautious for more volatility and price expanse next week that may or may not be friendly to all.

​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Cattle Markets: Same Story, Next Chapter
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The Cattle report released by USDA in late January does nothing to change the strong fundamentals driving cattle markets. Nearly all inventory categories were down year over year, including the all cattle and calves total, down 0.4 percent compared to last year. The 2025 calf crop was smaller than earlier projections at 32.9 million head, the smallest since 1941.

Of most significance, and slightly surprising, the beef cow herd decreased another 1.0 percent year over year as of January 1, 2026. The beef cow inventory now stands at 27.61 million head, the smallest since 1961. Since the cyclical peak in 2019, at 31.64 million, the beef cow herd has decreased 4.03 million, a total seven-year drop of 12.7 percent. The 2026 low extends the current cattle cycle to 12 years since the previous low in 2014. Although this is likely to be the cyclical low, it will not be confirmed until next year. The July cattle report may provide additional guidance.

The inventory of beef replacement heifers was up slightly, by 0.9 percent year over year. The is the first increase in beef replacement heifers in nine years, since the previous peak in 2017 (Figure 1). The tiny increase in beef replacement heifers is consistent with recent indications of a minor amount of heifer retention but is not enough to signal any beef cow herd growth. If anything, it indicates stabilization of the herd at current levels in anticipation of potential future growth.

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All categories of feeder cattle were down year over year including steers >500 pounds, down 0.6 percent; other heifers >500 pounds, down 1.5 percent; and calves <500 pounds, down 0.1 percent. However, total feedlot inventories were down 3.3 percent year over year. Thus, the calculated supply of feeder cattle outside of feedlots on January 1 was up 0.9 percent. This does not mean there are more feeder cattle in the country but simply that a few more of the smaller supply from last year has yet to be placed in feedlots.

Little, if any, beef cow herd growth is possible in 2026. It will depend on beef cow slaughter and herd culling. Beef cow slaughter decreased 40.5 percent in three years from 2022-2025, leading to a net culling rate of 8.4 percent in 2025. This low culling rate means that older cows will need to be culled going forward. Beef cow slaughter is expected to stabilize or perhaps increase some in 2026. That means that the slight increase in beef replacement heifers will be needed just to maintain the current herd or, at most, increase fractionally in 2026.

Once again, the industry is waiting for indications of significant beef heifer retention that would indicate potential beef herd growth. Tight cattle supplies will continue to support cattle prices, likely pushing prices higher. When increased heifer retention occurs, supplies will tighten further, pushing prices even higher. This, of course, is predicated on continued strong beef demand, which shows no sign of weakening at this point.

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, discusses how the recent bout of winter weather could influence cattle markets, including impacts on production costs, animal performance, and short-term price movement on SunUpTV from January 31, 2026 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1z8gn6m9TQ