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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $368.20 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $346.90=

+$21.30/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time April 15 2026 $379.09

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $346.90

+$32.19/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

So now this market has baked in the screw worm. This is in my opinion going to be a know problem. It has a lot of bluster from the Government that they have it all in control. We very well may have a handle on this. If it should start spreading fast then things get wild. We have a lot of cattle to be marketed in the next 60 days. We have corn under pressure and drought still through much of the West. God has restored a lot with the moisture and hopefully we can keep healing up the land.


I want to let you know about the expanded limits. With the potential for volatility this thing can jump $10.25/cwt X 1000# steer that is $102.50/head and the next day go to $16.00/cwt X1000# steer that is $160.00/head. So if we say the market exploded, because I talk about the down side too much. It goes up $10.25/cwt trading is halted until the next day now it can jump up $16.00/cwt that would be $26.25/cwt in two days X 1000# steer that is $262.50/head movement. You guessed it can drop that much as well. I tell you it is as exciting or scary as you need to see in this lifetime. The good old CME Feeder index however is going to move on the 7 day average. It may have wild swings but it should never reach this level.




🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
6/09/2026

Live Cattle:​

Last Thursday's low, to last Friday's high, remains the trading range for fats. I don't expect prices to come out of that range this week. At today's close, most contract months were in the middle of the range. I remain more concerned over factors unknown than known. Most seem to feel that same way with the loss of over 17,000 contracts the past two trading days. The volatility at the moment is of huge benefit. It is offering producers an opportunity to fix a price at a level that may or may not be available in the future.

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The positive basis continues to be supportive to futures. Traders have thinned out a little, suggesting to anticipate more volatility and price expanse. The detriment of the positive basis to producers is exceptionally friendly towards the packer. What I don't foresee is the consumer being willing to pay or consume more, leading to higher beef prices. All of the above leads to expectations of the right shoulder to be created over the next several weeks to get through summer grilling and the video sales. More marking of time may be what is in store.



​​​​Feeder Cattle: ​

Some believe that cattle outside of quarantined areas should be worth more. Paying more for something outside of the quarantined area, and you still susceptible to being placed inside of a quarantined area, seems to be assuming more risk for not much more reason than, you can. Every federal, state, and local government agency has their hand in the fly situation now. This lead me to anticipate more problems than resolve. Nonetheless, traders are narrowing basis slightly, with vertical integration believed helping to keep prices buoyed in the cash markets, no matter what. Similar to above, the positive basis is a marketing issue for backgrounders, now owning the most expensive cattle in history. For cattle feeders though, the discounts offer an opportunity to own inventory at a $20.00 plus discounts to the index. An options strategy could place you at an even lower price to procure inventory. The current congestion, in a very wide price range, is expected to break out in one direction or the other. Do futures move to cash, or cash to futures?

“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

New World Screwworm Confirmation: The Bad and the Good News
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The shoe has finally dropped. For many months producers and markets have operated under the threat of New World Screwworm (NWS) coming into the U.S. Now that it’s here, we can get on with the reality of dealing with it. The bad news is that NWS will be costly and a management headache for affected producers and those nearby, along with industry and agency folks tasked with controlling and eradicating the pest. Time spent planning and anticipating an outbreak now shifts to actions.
The psychological impact has been mostly one of relief, especially in futures markets. The arrival of NWS has been one of many sources of uncertainty hanging over cattle markets for months. Confirmation of NWS in the country removes one source of uncertainty and allows the market to focus on the reality, which has largely been priced into the market.
The “good” news in all this is that it is not a broader market issue. NWS will affect relatively few animals and is not something that will affect the cattle supply or beef production. It also is not a food safety issue and there are no impacts on meat. Beef market supply and demand fundamentals are not affected and no significant market impacts are anticipated.
Additionally, no major trade impacts are warranted or expected relative to NWS. However, the reaction of trade partners is unpredictable. Canada has announced a temporary ban on livestock from Texas. This is seen as a largely symbolic political move as it will affect a very small volume of trade. Although there is significant bilateral cattle trade between Canada and the U.S., very few Texas cattle are typically involved. Canada is well north of the climate boundary for NWS and the threat is minimal.
Another part of the uncertainty about NWS is the continued closure of the Mexican border. It is uncertain if the fact of NWS in the U.S. will change political decisions regarding the status of border. The market will continue to wait for news about when the border might open. Once again, the impacts are more related to the uncertainty than the reality. When it happens, opening the border will likely be a deliberate and relatively slow process. Over time, Mexican cattle flows into the U.S. may rebuild with marginal impacts on feeder cattle supplies in the country but no immediate disruptive shocks to cattle markets are anticipated.
Like most disasters, the impacts of NWS will be primarily local. It will take significant efforts and dollars to ensure a perimeter around the outbreak and effective animal movement controls to contain the pest along with diligent monitoring and treatment of any affected animals. It is uncertain at this point how large of a region might be involved in this outbreak, but no major cattle or beef market impacts are anticipated.