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Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

Daily LRP Gamblers delight today

Howdy,

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $247.75-NOV 2024 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $261.20=

-$13.45/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time Oct 2023 $254.10

November 24 Feeder cattle futures $261.20

-$7.10/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Remember my Key indicator $261.20 for August Feeders. We have had 3 days that will not close above that. We are dang close but just can't let that number to stand to let everyone sleep on it. So It is a guessing game as we see what will transpire. We are going to be closing out May fast and in a hurry. Cash is coming up to the board. We also have a cattle on Feed dropping Friday May 24th. This will be the last Cattle on Feed until the fall. We all have a hard time believing the COF report but how will everyone act with it gone. So roll the dice away as we see where this goes.

How to proceed if you can lock in a profit it is a good time to do it. We can most assuredly have the price go higher. The thing that stings is how hard it can drop when the next Bird Flu or Economic calamity shakes loose. Keep your ear to the ground for actual contract pricing in the country. We should see some if the feeders have to have a set of calves.

I heard a great saying today. "Contract early especially in an Election year"




🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift


5/21/2024


Live Cattle:
Traders stopped June at the top of the down trend line, via the close only chart. The bar chart only has a few more cents from today's high to put the price at the top trend line. With cash quite a bit higher, I don't want to say this has to hold as it most likely may not. Regardless, traders have put about $8.00 on June in the past 5 days. I still see very little to do in the fats, due to a great need to get every penny out of them. Consumers have been noted shifting in discretionary spending. Everyone has a concern of losing the consumers business, but at the moment, it appears the consumer shift from cuts to the grind may keep production and prices status quo through the summer. August is about $2.00 from reaching the down trend line and October about the same. With feeder cattle remaining well within the triangle and fats attempting to break out of, it leads me to expect some changes in how cattle feeders approach buying incoming inventory.



Feeder Cattle:

When May expires this week, the August contract will set a new historical high, via the weekly continuation chart. The next step will then be to see if humans pay a higher price for the physical inventory. Although basis remains somewhat wide, it is the starting spread between feeders and fats that continues to reflect poor odds of success. At today's close of $259.72 August, when applying 550 pounds, at $1.00 cost of gain, it leads to a animal worth $2,757.62. At a 1,400 pound slaughter weight, it will take a $197.00 fat to return the input costs. To date, the historical high of fats is $190.27 made in March of this year. It tends to be a rare feat for the June contract to exceed the highs made by the April contract month. Not to say it won't, but it rarely does. Cattle feeders are expected to go back deep in the red once past June. That is because feeder cattle prices rose rapidly and far in price in the first quarter. It was $47.00. So, with each month going forward from next week, the profit margin will narrow dramatically without further advancement of the fat market, or an extreme change in feed costs. Neither of which is assured. Of some interest to me is the previous analysis where I believed the next most probable move to be a significant triangle in which time will be marked in order to allow for the agenda to begin to work. I sometimes amaze my self as when viewing the 50% mark of May feeder cattle of the September - December of '23 decline, it is within $.48 of Monday's index reading. That is about as close to the middle of a $59.00 price range you can get. I expect August, September, and maybe even October to do the same. If it were to do that now, it may suggest the index moving higher. Were futures to retest, or exceed the bottom of the triangle, it may come much closer to where the index is now, than $10.00 higher. Just remember, when paying top dollar, you have to find someone else to pay an even higher top dollar.


I encourage you to read Chris Swift’s article today! He always has interesting things to say they are found under Mid day and “Shootin the Bull"

HOPE ISN'T A STRATEGY!

CME FEEDER CATTLE INDEX:

for the 7 days ending
05/20/2024 is 247.75 👆🏻 +$.88
05/17/2024 is 246.87 👆🏻 +$3.83
05/16/2024 is 243.04 👆🏻 +$1.25
05/15/2024 is 242.33 👆🏻 +$.54
05/14/2024 is 241.79 👆🏻 +$.04
05/13/2024 is 241.75 👆🏻 +$.39
05/10/2024 is 241.36 👆🏻 +$.75
05/09/2024 is 240.61 👆🏻 +$.23
05/08/2024 is 240.38 👆🏻 +$.85
05/07/2024 is 239.45 👇🏻 -$.08
05/06/2024 is 239.53 👇🏻 -$.52
05/03/2024 is 240.05 👇🏻 -$3.32
05/02/2024 is 242.39 👇🏻 -$.98

Quotes: Click below

1 HD Quote - 1000 lb. Steer Yearling Single

1 HD Quote - 599 lb. Heifer Single

1 HD Quote - 599 lb. Steer Single

1 HD Quote - 599 lb. Unborn Steer & Heifer

1 HD Quote - 675 lb. Heifer Single

1 HD Quote - 700 lb. Steer Single

1 HD Quote - 950 lb. Heifer Yearling Single

Heavy Heifers 6 - 10.00 CWT

Heavy Steers 6 - 10.00 CWT

Light Heifers 1 - 5.99 CWT

Light Steers 1 - 5.99 CWT

Unborn Steers & Heifers

Charts & Articles: Click below

z. Chris Swift Midday Cattle Com Article

z. Chris Swift Daily Com - Shooting the Bull News Article

CME April '24 Live Chart

CME December '24 Corn Chart

CME April '24 Live Cattle Price Chart

CME November '24 Feeder Cattle Price Chart

CME October '24 Feeder Cattle Price Chart

1. CME Feeder Cattle Cash Current Price Chart

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