Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $342.16 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $346.10=

-$3.94/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time June 24 2026 $381.86

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $346.10

+$35.76/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Oil seems to be making the moves.

We have a new weight class Unborn Bull and Heifer Weight 2 6-9.00/CWT. This has 30 weeks to 52 Weeks

I want to let you know about the expanded limits. With the potential for volatility this thing can jump $10.25/cwt X 1000# steer that is $102.50/head and the next day go to $16.00/cwt X1000# steer that is $160.00/head. So if we say the market exploded, because I talk about the down side too much. It goes up $10.25/cwt trading is halted until the next day now it can jump up $16.00/cwt that would be $26.25/cwt in two days X 1000# steer that is $262.50/head movement. You guessed it can drop that much as well. I tell you it is as exciting or scary as you need to see in this lifetime. The good old CME Feeder index however is going to move on the 7 day average. It may have wild swings but it should never reach this level.




🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨
October 22, 2026

Thank you for subscribing to "Shootin' the Bull." Navigating the immense price fluctuation and volatility has never been more important with the amount of working capital at stake. We consume as much information as possible, from all sources available, decipher it, and relay our findings to help you make the most informed decision possible.

Live Cattle:
There are two factors believed dominating the cattle/beef industry. One, is the low placements by cattle feeders, believed in the attempt to lower supplies and help prop up the price of fat cattle. The other is the exceptionally slow processing volume of packers, believed in the attempt to lower supplies of beef to the retailer and increase beef supplies at the cattle feeder sector. I have no idea which will produce the intended results, but what I do believe is that with the consumer having stagnated in consumption, there are no more margins to be had. Therefore, if cattle feeders succeed in finding margin, it will to the detriment of the packer, and vice versa. Packers have benefited greatly from this year's increase of the drop credit being sharply higher year over year. Although not positive, but were the price increase of the drop credit not so high, packers may just be breaking even. Back in the olden days, I recall long stretches of packer profits being made from the drop credit, with beef processing a breakeven.

I recommend putting pencil to paper to see where you need to cover all of your exposure to lower prices. For a speculative trade, I recommend selling December at $231.30 with a buy stop to exit only at $232.50 or February fats at $234.00 with a buy stop to exit only at $235.30. By the close, both of these levels were approached. By the close, both were within close proximity of the sell level. If you have an interest in these trades, the opening on Friday may offer the ability.

Feeder Cattle:
With the recent up tic in volume of movement in stockers and feeders, those on the selling side appear glad to be out of the trap. Those on the buying side, are believed to have entered into a weak margin stance without a significant rally going forward. If adopting the long-growing scheme of production, working capital is expected to tighten. Nonetheless, it all hinges on the cattle feeder's desire to increase projected negative margins at inception. For the moment, I don't see anything that transpired this week that would improve projected margins from remaining the same, if not worsening slightly. Since early August, futures traders have rallied most contract months $50.00 or more, and narrowed, if not swapped basis. In this time frame, producers can relinquish a significant amount of downside risk at equal prices to today's cash, or just under, depending upon how you manage the risk. For sure, there is no shortage of risk, and while the wind is at your back, do something about it. The January $344.00 put option premium is approximately $11.60. $11.60 / $344.00 is 3% of the value of the contract. The mere first leg down was 19% and reflected huge losses to cattle purchased through the summer, at much loftier levels than this.

“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Global Beef Trade Update
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist


The most recent USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report shows that beef production among major world producers for 2027 is projected at 60.031 million metric tons, down fractionally from 2026 and down 3.7 percent from the peak in 2025. Among major beef producing countries, production is down in Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Australia, Russia and South Africa. Beef production is projected to increase in 2027 in India, Argentina, Mexico and Canada.

Total global beef exports have been mostly steady since 2025 with 2027 projected to be fractionally lower than 2026 at 13.885 million metric tons (Figure 1). This follows a relatively steady increase in the previous decade prior to 2025.

Image
Figure 2 shows projected 2027 beef exports for major exporting countries. Brazil is the largest beef exporter, accounting for 29.5 percent of total with Australia at number two with 16.1 percent and India in third place with a 14.0 percent share of total beef exports. Exports from India includes meat from water buffalo, known as carabeef. The U.S. is fourth with 7.6 percent followed by Argentina at 5.8 percent of total beef exports. Of the top ten beef exporters, the remaining six countries all account for less than five percent of total beef exports and include New Zealand, Canada, the E.U., Uruguay, Mexico and Paraguay.

Image

Projected 2027 beef imports are heavily concentrated into China/Hong Kong, with 30.4 percent of the global total and the U.S. with 22.5 percent of total beef imports (Figure 3). Next is Japan with a 5.7 percent share and South Korea accounting for 5.0 percent of total beef imports. Smaller beef importing countries include the E.U., the United Kingdom, Chile, Canada, Russia, and Egypt. The top ten beef importers account for 80.0 percent of total global beef imports.

Image
Beef trade continues to grow and is increasingly important in global beef markets. In 2026, beef exports were 23.2 percent of total global beef production, up from 16.0 percent a decade ago in 2017.