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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $327.43 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $325.85=

+$1.58/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time June 24 2026 $381.86

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $325.85

+$56.01/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

Slow reports last weekend due to rodeo's and rain. We are moving along but the index is still not gaining.

I am having a Producer meeting Tuesday September 15th at the JCB Feedlot. We will be going over the new Bred Heifer LRP option and new Forage Insurance option. We will have RCIS's Head of Livestock speaking at the meeting.

We have a new weight class Unborn Bull and Heifer Weight 2 6-9.00/CWT. This has 30 weeks to 52 Weeks

I want to let you know about the expanded limits. With the potential for volatility this thing can jump $10.25/cwt X 1000# steer that is $102.50/head and the next day go to $16.00/cwt X1000# steer that is $160.00/head. So if we say the market exploded, because I talk about the down side too much. It goes up $10.25/cwt trading is halted until the next day now it can jump up $16.00/cwt that would be $26.25/cwt in two days X 1000# steer that is $262.50/head movement. You guessed it can drop that much as well. I tell you it is as exciting or scary as you need to see in this lifetime. The good old CME Feeder index however is going to move on the 7 day average. It may have wild swings but it should never reach this level.




🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

September 9, 2026

Thank you for subscribing to "Shootin' the Bull." Navigating the immense price fluctuation and volatility has never been more important with the amount of working capital at stake. We consume as much information as possible, from all sources available, decipher it, and relay our findings to help you make the most informed decision possible.

Live Cattle:
The trend towards normalcy continues, as front months are lower than back, widening the spread to more carry. The wall of worry is steep to climb, and due to a belief this is a corrective pattern in play, the overlapping of waves and immense volatility should be anticipated. Input costs continue to increase with diesel fuel at a new contract high and less than a nickel from the March high. Feeder cattle prices, via the index, continue to project negative margins, and corn is only down $.21 from the recent high, but up $1.02 from the end of June low. Lastly, there is a growing division between beef cuts and the grind. The beef cuts are in shorter supply due to fewer cattle on feed and the manipulated slaughter pace of packers. This in turn is expected to keep the retail price of cuts elevated, whether grocer or restaurant. Imported lean trimmings are nothing new to the market, or the amount of. What is new would be the increase of imported lean trimmings. All of this begs the question; can cuts of beef hold up the price of cattle, or does the grind weigh on the price? I don't know. The market returning to normality suggests that since the grind makes up a large portion of beef demand, and consumers are engulfed in an inflationary economy, it leads me to lean a little more towards the grind impacting cattle more negatively than the cuts in a positive manner. Long story short, the current price action is believed a correction of the initial thrust lower. As the two beef items fight for the consumers' dollar, how much more of the consumers' dollar goes towards other necessities will help to decipher the next most probable move. You need to think about this and make a decision based upon your opinion of the economy and how the consumer will contend with current inflation, if not higher in the future. Then, consider what is at risk and manage that risk with an at the money put option.

Feeder Cattle:
There is a consensus that the lower volume of sales the past several weeks is due to the price decline. I don't disagree. If so, then there are how many ever cattle with 3 to 4 more weeks of growth on them that may or may not make them as desirable towards the next step of production. Holding back for too long has issues of its own. As well, it suggests they still need to sell cattle and not many want to enter into the same negative margin that has simply gotten worse as time goes by. I continue to believe current higher price action is a correction of the initial thrust lower. I think all of the above will make for a steep wall of worry to climb; that may inhibit prices from reaching the minimal corrective price level. Therefore, you need to get busy and figure out where you will be comfortable initiating a put option position and have those orders lying in wait. The volatility and price expanse is anticipated to offer some relief from the lower trading, but not by much, and probably not by enough to get you out of the negative margins. So, consider what has been lost, the recent gains of futures having narrowed basis, and call me with what you need to get done to make sure your operation remains operational.

“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Beef Imports and the Brazil Roller Coaster

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Beef imports continue to be the subject of political attention that has resulted in a myriad of variable and inconsistent policies and actions. Cattle and beef markets have been buffeted by a barrage of political interference that has clouded markets and contributed to producer uncertainty and delay in responding to market signals to rebuild cattle inventories.

The latest trade data shows that beef imports continue to increase, up 18.7 percent year over year in July and up 12.9 percent for the first seven months of the year compared to one year ago. Australia remains the largest source of beef imports, up 16.1 percent thus far in 2026 and representing a 21.8 percent share of total imports. Close behind is Brazil, the number two beef import market. More on Brail below. Canada is the third largest source of beef imports, almost unchanged year over year, (up a scant 0.7 percent this year) and representing a 14.6 percent share of beef imports. Monthly beef imports were up 18.6 percent in July from number four Mexico and are up 27.8 percent for the year to date compared to last year. Mexico accounts for 12.2 percent of total beef imports. New Zealand is the fifth largest beef imports source, up 9.3 percent from last year and representing an 11.3 percent share of beef imports. Beef imports from number six Uruguay are down 2.4 percent year over year but still account for 6.3 percent of beef imports.

Several smaller import markets are in the spotlight as well. Beef imports from Argentina, resulting from an expanded tariff rate quota announced in fall of 2025, have increased 155.1 percent in the first seven months this year to a share of 4.8 percent of total beef imports. From Nicaragua, beef imports are up 36.4 percent year over year, totaling 3.7 percent of imports. Similarly, newcomer Paraguay is up 49.1 percent compared to last year and accounts for 3.6 percent of beef imports.

Brazil has emerged as a major source of beef imports. For 20 years from 2001- 2020, Brazil averaged 5.5 percent of total beef imports, ranging from 2.1 to 9.2 percent. Since 2021, Brazil’s share of beef imports have averaged 13.7 percent and Brazil moved into the number two position with 20.8 percent of 2026 year to date beef imports.

Brazil has experienced a roller coaster of impacts amid variable and wildly inconsistent U.S. trade policy. Figure 1 shows the dramatic range of monthly beef imports from Brazil since 2021. In general, Brazil competes for the small “Other Country” quota, which has been filled in the first few days of January in the last five years, mostly by Brazil. This accounts for the January spikes in beef imports since 2022 (Figure 1). As soon as the quota is filled each year, Brazil has been subject to a 26.4 percent over-quota tariff. However, in 2025, Brazil was subject to a flurry of arbitrary federal tariff changes that included at least five tariff levels that ranged from zero up to a maximum of 74.6 before dropping back to over-quota level of 26.4 percent. Such a quagmire of policy changes disrupts business relationships and supply chains and increases uncertainty for international and domestic producers.

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Recently, a federal announcement of an additional 300,000 metric tons of quota-free beef imports appears intended to largely benefit Brazil. It’s not clear how much additional beef might be imported as a result because a significant portion of imports would have happened anyway. Most beef imports from Brazil are used in food service, primarily for ground beef, and are unlikely to have any measurable impact on ground beef prices at retail grocery.

The roller coaster continues. Despite recent federal support for increased beef imports, a new executive order last week signals the intent to revisit the perpetual and controversial issue of mandatory country of origin labeling (mCOOL). Voluntary labeling is currently available if desired. Ironically, consumers would be unlikely to benefit much because most Brazilian beef is used in food service (e.g. restaurants) and the proposed mCOOL law does not apply to beef in food service.