Howdy & Welcome to Daily LRP!

"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

This is your one stop to watch the feeder cattle market.

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $367.41 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $348.65=

+$18.76/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time October 16 2025 $376.51

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $348.65

+$27.86/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

The uneasiness of the World is messing with all markets. We are seeing reports from the CDC warning of the infestation. We have a ton of outside noise while the markets stay strong. The Tyson plant has officially laid off most of the workers. So I am uneasy. Remember though I wear a belt and Suspenders.

At a press conference on August 12th, 1986, US President Ronald Reagan said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”


I would like to make you aware of the expanded limits that have been put in place by the CME for Feeder cattle. June 2nd we are now a Daily Limit of $9.25/CWT and Expanded Limit of $13.75?CWT for the following trading day. This means this market can have some major price movement even more that before. It also shows how one move down could pay the premium quickly in an LRP.

New Options coming in LRP for 2026 if you are making purchases on cattle that are contracted for say your yearlings next fall we can lock them in. Previously you could only cover cattle that you had physical possession of. This is one of the new changes we will see going forward.



🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

“Shootin’ The Bull”
by Christopher B Swift
1/21/2026

Live Cattle:

Trading appeared a little void of traders today, at least the human ones. Computers were quick to fade rallies and buy dips with few humans believed knowing what to do. Of the only factor of significance today was the continuation to pay more for feeder cattle than their fat counter part. I think the consistency of the on feed number, and length of time on feed, suggests cattle feeders are in no hurry to average in higher feeder cattle prices to their current mix. At one time, the cattle feeder was noted as having the weight of the world on their shoulders, but today, I think there are some instances where backgrounders have paid so much for lighter inventory, and the discounts of feeder cattle futures, may well have some in a worse projected breakeven than cattle feeders. I recommend maintaining all previously recommended hedges and continue to believe the basis in fats to be slightly advantageous to the April contract, and not all that bad in the back months to lock in a minimum sale floor that may or may not be available when physical marketing takes place. This is a sales solicitation.

​

Feeder Cattle:

Basis narrowed cautiously today with both sides of unchanged having been traded. The wide trading ranges in the day, and multiple times to and from, are believed computers and not humans dictating the bulk of trading. By the close, futures were able to stay plus, narrowing basis a little more. Cattlemen are believed convinced the well known shortage of supply will continue to encourage someone else to pay an even higher price for in the future. Everyone else that trades and consumes beef, seem to have a slightly different opinion as reflected by the box beef price and ability to move quantities at that price. ​

​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Beef Exports Update
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Beef exports were down 12.6 percent year over year through the first ten months of 2025 (Figure 1). This follows decreases in 2023 and 2024 from record beef exports in 2022. Decreased beef exports were anticipated in the current environment of decreased beef production and record high beef prices in the U.S. Beef exports were additionally impacted negatively in 2025 by tariffs and trade wars.

South Korea and Japan were the two largest beef export markets through October. South Korea was up 3.0 percent year over year while Japan was down 3.3 percent compared to the same period in 2024. South Korea gained market share to exceed Japan fractionally by October. Both markets had a market share of 24.1 percent for the year to date. Beef exports to Mexico were down 11.8 percent year over year through October. Mexico is the number three market in 2025, with an 11.5 percent share of beef exports, up from fourth place a year earlier. For the January-October period, beef exports to number five Canada were down 7.4 percent, with Canada having a 9.1 percent share of total beef exports. Taiwan was the number six market with a ten-month export total down 10.6 percent year over year and a 6.5 percent share of beef exports.


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The combined export market of China/Hong Kong was the most impacted in 2025, dropping from third to fourth place with total exports through October down 48.9 percent year over year (Figure 1). For the year to date, China/Hong Kong had a 10.9 percent share of total exports, down from 18.7 percent share in 2024.

China and Hong Kong are, in many ways, a single market, which is why beef export data for China and Hong Kong are frequently combined. However, there are some important differences that impacted beef exports in 2025. Figure 2 shows the history of beef exports to China and Hong Kong in recent years. Prior to official U.S. access to China in 2017, Hong Kong was a major beef export market. In 2016, Hong Kong was the number four export market with an 11.5 percent share of total beef exports. It was widely recognized that a significant portion of beef exports to Hong Kong were transshipped into China. Starting in 2020, as beef exports to China were officially possible and recognized, beef exports to Hong Kong decreased as expected. Hong Kong’s share of total exports to China/Hong Kong decreased from 100 percent in 2016 to 14 percent in the 2022-2024 period.

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The distinction between the two markets became important again in 2025. In response to U.S. tariffs, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China essentially closed China as an export destination starting in April. In October, China represented 0.7 percent of beef exports and year to date exports to China alone were down 96.8 percent year over year. However, Hong Kong did not impose the same retaliatory tariffs as China so beef exports to Hong Kong have increased year over year, and Hong Kong once again represents more than 88 percent of total beef exports to China/Hong Kong (Figure 2).

Beef exports are expected to decline further in 2026 as the impacts of declining U.S. beef production, high beef prices and continued political wrangling are felt. The impact of declining beef exports has been largely masked relative to record domestic cattle and beef prices and has not received a great deal of attention in the industry. However, decreased beef exports and lost international market share may impact cattle and beef markets for many years going forward.