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"We can't predict the price we can only protect it"

"Fear and Greed Move Markets"

Basis looks a couple different ways

​CME Feeder Cattle Index $352.93 OCTOBER 2026 CME Feeder Cattle Futures $331.95=

+$20.98/CWT Basis (at the end of a month they cash meets the futures)

🚨Here is a new way to look at the numbers
CME Feeder Cattle Index High of all time June 24 2026 $381.86

OCTOBER 2026 Feeder cattle futures $331.95

+$49.91/CWT basis spread to the all time high.🚨

We are seeing the whip saw effect again.

We have a new weight class Unborn Bull and Heifer Weight 2 6-9.00/CWT. This has 30 weeks to 52 Weeks

I want to let you know about the expanded limits. With the potential for volatility this thing can jump $10.25/cwt X 1000# steer that is $102.50/head and the next day go to $16.00/cwt X1000# steer that is $160.00/head. So if we say the market exploded, because I talk about the down side too much. It goes up $10.25/cwt trading is halted until the next day now it can jump up $16.00/cwt that would be $26.25/cwt in two days X 1000# steer that is $262.50/head movement. You guessed it can drop that much as well. I tell you it is as exciting or scary as you need to see in this lifetime. The good old CME Feeder index however is going to move on the 7 day average. It may have wild swings but it should never reach this level.




🚨 PLEASE READ CHRIS SWIFT 🚨

August 6, 2026

A significant disconnect took place today between cash and futures. Cash having traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher this week, with fats selling off by that much, or more in the back months today. Futures traders shoved all of the risk on to cattle feeders today with the sharp widening of the positive basis. The wide basis leaves tremendous room for error, leading to caution being noted on how you position yourself . Boxes were down sharply. Box price is believed influenced by the slaughter rate, more than demand. The center of the plate congestion is believed getting a little more congested. All of the above are believed clues to the transitioning from bull market, to maybe bear. The positive basis will produce a tendency for futures to trade higher to converge. If they do not, something else is taking place that may not be in sight just yet. Interest in the cattle market continues to fade with open interest nearing the 290,000 level.

Feeder cattle experienced the same ordeal as fats with cash sharply higher and futures sharply lower. On my screen, the lowest price is August '27 at $308.25; a $44.68 positive basis spread, for which $9.40 was done today. Backgrounders are deep into a tiger trap. Cattle feeders have opportunities to book spring and summer cattle for this discount, but yet no one seems to be doing such. As well, one would think the inverted carry would begin to narrow, but it is still widening. That is believed due to front end having to converge with the index and the back end in expectation of more inventory to work with. What is helping the most is that feeder cattle are down more than fats, reducing the projected negative margins in the future. Today though, with the index over $4.00 higher and February futures near $4.00 lower, it puts the spread between starting feeder and finished fat at $128.28. Around $132.00 is about as high as I've seen most this year. So, a little better, but still over $400.00 per head loss to start the process. I think the basis spreads are evidence of cattlemen remaining bullish, due to fewer cattle and still tremendous capacity to fill, and the rest of the world that eats beef. October was down the most at $7.475, and when spread to the index up $4.28, the positive basis widened by $11.75 in one day. That is all risk you are having to assume if you have not marketed anything, and that is profit potential on both sides if you did.

“This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

​🐮Dr Darrell Peel🤠

Ground Beef Prices Rising Fastest
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Much has been said and written about rising beef prices, and especially ground beef prices, for many months. Since 2022, the year of record beef production, and the beginning of the current bull market, wholesale and retail beef prices have risen with strong beef demand and declining beef production. Choice wholesale boxed beef prices have increased by 44.1 percent from the 2022 average and all-fresh retail beef prices are up 29.8 percent. Total beef production has decreased 10.5 percent from the 2022 average to current levels.

Beef consists of many products, each in individual markets, and not all change at the same rate reflecting differences in supply and demand for each product. Across the range of beef products, Figure 1 shows monthly wholesale values for beef tenderloin and a representative ground beef formulation of a 7:1 mixture of 90 and 50 percent lean trimmings resulting in an 85 percent lean product. The trend lines for each price series confirm that ground beef prices have been rising faster than tenderloin (and most all other muscle cuts).

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The relatively faster increase in ground beef prices is a function of demand and supply factors. In general, as beef prices increase, consumers are likely to rely even more heavily on ground beef to blunt the impact of higher beef prices, thus increasing ground beef demand relative to other beef products. In Figure 1, wholesale beef tenderloin prices have increased an average of 26.6 percent since 2022 and 85 percent lean ground beef prices are up 60.7 percent. On average prices for the highest value steak cuts including tenderloin, ribeye and strip loin wholesale prices are up 33.6 percent while prices for cuts including flank steak, tri-tip, top sirloin and top round are up an average of 42.7 percent.

Not only is the demand for ground beef demand higher, the supply of ground beef has decreased faster than for fed beef. Ground beef relies heavily on lean processing beef from cull cow and bull slaughter. Figure 2 shows that the supply of nonfed beef (cull cows and bulls) has decreased faster than the production of fed (steer and heifer) beef.

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The production of nonfed beef is down more sharply than fed beef because cow slaughter has decreased 30.5 percent since 2022 while fed slaughter is down 12.7 percent. Moreover, declining fed slaughter is partially offset by a sharp increase in steer and heifer carcass weights, while cow carcass weights have increased modestly. Going forward, nonfed beef production may decrease more slowly as the beef cow herd and cow slaughter stabilize. However, fed beef production is expected to continue decreasing with tighter fed cattle supplies expected through 2027 at least.

Dr. Peel discusses the continued decline in the U.S. cattle herd, signs that the herd may be trying to stabilize, and the cattle market’s reaction to news of a phased reopening of the Mexican border for livestock imports on SunUpTV from August 1, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QzQgUaqwJs